There have been early signs that Omicron is more capable of reinfecting people who have recovered from earlier coronavirus infections. As scientists stepped up their collection of viral samples around an outbreak, they may have captured a high rate of spread that was unique to that cluster but won’t reoccur in a broad population. Omicron’s rise in South Africa came at a time when new infections were relatively low, a context that could lead to overestimates of its transmissibility. The Omicron variant was probably incubated in a person with poorly controlled HIV who struggled to clear a coronavirus infection. Delta has proved more than capable of cutting a devastating swath through the U.S.Įven without factoring in Omicron, “we already are facing a Delta-driven winter surge that is going to kill another 100,000 to 150,000 Americans,” Moore said.ĭid failure to adequately treat HIV patients give rise to the Omicron variant? It’s possible that Omicron can outcompete them but will be stymied by Delta.
The Alpha and Beta variants continue to circulate widely in Africa, accounting for almost half of new infections examined there. But it may have faced less daunting competition in Africa than it will in the United States. In Africa, Omicron has been linked to a steep rise in new infections, suggesting it is indeed highly transmissible.
Look no further than the Beta variant, which scientists considered a potential threat because it looked like it might imperil the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, it’s been able to elbow aside other variants that otherwise might have spread more widely. The reason for the strain’s supremacy is simple: It’s twice as transmissible as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Omicron’s impact on the COVID-19 pandemic will depend on a variety of factors that will take days to weeks for scientists to untangle. How bad will Omicron be? Scientists won’t really know for months
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